Investment Research / Working Case Study

A nine-name cohort, built in a weekend.

A chip-to-grid investment cohort — semiconductors plus the AI-power infrastructure that surrounds them — researched, refined, and published with one PM at the seam and a fleet of specialist agents underneath.

This page is the front door to both the work and the way it was made.

Scope9 tickers · 7 lenses each
Wall clock~48 hours, single PM
Output63 memos · 9 theses · 1 deck

Thesis at a glance

The PM-level read. For the full deck — value chain, cohort architecture, scenarios, ticker pages — open the research hub.

The cohort runs the full chip-to-grid stack — from the substation to the transistor — as a single analytical frame. Two of the nine names are not semiconductor companies. They sit here because the dollar-weighted center of mass of the AI-datacenter build sits at the electrical layer (G1–G4), not the silicon layer (L8b/L8c). Per-MW addressable content at the box-builder tier runs $700K–$2.8M; the power-semi BOM at the same MW is roughly twenty to sixty times less. portfolio-summary §1 · refinement-log Findings 8 + 11

The book is seven longs, two shorts — net long ~15.25% NAV, gross long ~17.15%. Core longs anchor at the silicon tier (TSM 5/5, NVDA and AVGO 4/5) and scale down through TXN at the system-BOM tier (3/5) and ETN/VRT at the grid-system tier (3/5) to NVTS as a probe (2/5). Shorts are WOLF (4/5, structural SiC share break) and INTC (3/5, foundry-leadership binary). portfolio-summary §2

Two non-negotiable construction rules emerged from the refinement loop. ETN+VRT combined ≤ 1.5–2.0× TXN NAV — both names are AI-capex amplifiers; uncapped, they convert the cohort into a single-factor bet wearing two tickers. And chip-layer and grid-layer names are held independently, not as a chain — box-builders are vendor-agnostic on power-semi supplier by commercial design. A strong VRT order book does not mechanically translate into NVTS or TXN P&L. refinement-log Findings 12 + 16

Open the full deck

The team that wasn't a team

One PM at the seam, a stack of specialists underneath. Each role had a single job, and only the seam-watcher held the cohort frame.

The AIR pattern is documented in its own field guide — see the working diagram. What follows is the roster for this specific run — twelve distinct roles, dispatched in the order they appeared.

vault-librarian
Atom A1
Re-ingested four vault notes (40,987 words). "The AI Power Crisis Parts 1 and 2" was the load-bearing primary source for the four expansion tickers.
domain-synthesist
Atom A2
Refreshed the synthesis to lead with the chip-to-grid stack and promote ETN, VRT, NVTS, and TXN from "candidates" to "deep-dive cohort."
target-screener
Atom B1
Re-ranked 166 companies into Core / Bench / Watch. WOLF moved to short-#1; VRT moved to long-#3 ahead of AVGO.
competitor-analyst
×9 tickers
Mapped the competitive landscape per ticker. Surfaced the Innoscience finding that corrected the synthesis competitive sub-claim.
customer-analyst
×9 tickers
Mapped buyers and reference-design partners per ticker. Surfaced the box-builder vendor-agnosticism that forced the architectural split.
financial-analyst
×9 tickers
Stress-tested earnings, multiples, and capital allocation per ticker. Pair stress-tests for TXN-NVTS and ETN-VRT pricing.
macro-analyst
×9 tickers
Placed each name against rate, capex, and geopolitical regimes. Surfaced Mexico tariff as ETN-specific risk.
market-analyst
×9 tickers
Sized TAM, share, and cycle phase per ticker. Quantified the $/MW asymmetry between G1–G4 and L8b/L8c.
regulatory-analyst
×9 tickers
Mapped CHIPS, ITC, MOFCOM, IRA, BIL, F-Gas, FERC exposure. Surfaced the two distinct subsidy regimes within the cohort.
supply-chain-analyst
×9 tickers
Walked tier-1 and tier-2 dependencies. Surfaced GOES (ETN) and HFO refrigerants (VRT) as cohort-wide chokepoints.
pm-synthesizer
C-_-3, D1–D4
Wrote the nine ticker theses, the portfolio summary, the scenario stress doc, the adjacency rationale, and the three publication-ready decision memos.
investment-visual
Atom E1
Built the entire research deck — hub, six cohort-level views, nine ticker pages — from the PM-level outputs.
AIR (self)
every refine
Verified analyst output against the rubric, dispatched re-runs where needed, ran the cohort-coherence pass at the end.

Atomize, integrate, refine

The work is a loop, not a pipeline. The plan changes every time analyst output returns. Below is what that looked like for this run.

Twenty-one atoms, six sub-agent types, one cohort. Every dispatch was logged. Every re-dispatch was logged. The audit trail is 439 lines long and is itself a deliverable.

A1 A2 B1 C-NVTS C-TXN C-ETN C-VRT C-COHERENCE D1 {D2, D3, D4} E1

7 analysts dispatched in parallel within each ticker · D2/D3/D4 ran concurrently after D1 · E1 consumed all of D

Three moments where the loop earned its keep.

Finding 01 · Atom C-NVTS-1

The GaN race is four-way, not three-way.

The synthesis going into the run framed the GaN power-semi competitive map as Infineon scale vs. TI vertical vs. Navitas density. The NVTS competitor analyst surfaced a defect — Innoscience holds ~30% share, #1 globally, ahead of Navitas's ~17%, and is on NVIDIA's 800VDC partner list. AIR did not edit the synthesis mid-flight. The finding was carried forward to brief downstream tickers, and the synthesis was corrected in a single coherent pass at C-COHERENCE rather than drifting across tickers.

refinement-log lines 122–128, 339–342
Finding 04 · Atom C-TXN-1

TXN is the cohort's structural Taiwan-tail hedge.

The prior portfolio summary's #1 open question was that the cohort was structurally long-biased without a Taiwan-tail hedge. Two atoms later, TXN's supply-chain analyst surfaced the answer — TXN runs ~10–15% Taiwan exposure versus 60–90% for the rest of the deep-dive cohort, anchored by SM1 (Sherman, TX), SM2, and the 95%+ internal-manufacturing target by 2030. The expansion didn't just add four tickers — it materially closed the cohort's biggest residual concentration.

refinement-log lines 174–178 · synthesis §0
Finding 12 · Atom C-ETN-1

The chip-to-grid P&L chain has a deliberate gap.

The ETN customer analyst confirmed what the cohort frame had implicitly assumed but never tested — box-builders (Eaton, Vertiv, Schneider) do not publicly name their power-semi suppliers. They source competitively. A strong VRT order book does not mechanically translate into NVTS or TXN revenue. This single finding forced the cohort architecture to split — chip-layer names and grid-layer names are now held as independent positions, not as a translation pair.

refinement-log lines 236–238, 295

Outputs

Every artifact, every link. The deck has its own visual language — darker, denser, built for analyst use. Stepping inside should feel like walking from the gallery into the workshop.

Stepping into the deck — different voice, same author.

Productivity ledger

Defensible numbers. Sourced from the refinement log line by line.

MetricValueSource
Vault corpus ingested4 notes · 40,987 wordsrefinement-log line 21
Companies in working ledger168refinement-log line 361
Tickers covered (deep-dive)9air-plan · portfolio-summary
Analyst memos produced (9 tickers × 7 lenses)63per-ticker folders
Cohort-level memos5air-plan A2 / B1 / D1 / D3 / D4
PM ticker theses9per-ticker thesis.md
Decision memos (publication-ready)3decision-memos/
Visual deck pages15+refinement-log line 438
Re-dispatches across 28 expansion-ticker analyst dispatches0refinement-log NVTS / TXN / ETN / VRT
Refinement-log length439 linesrefinement-log.md
Wall-clock — expansion run (5 → 9 tickers + cohort refresh + deck rebuild)2026-05-04, single dayrefinement-log dates
Wall-clock — 5-name foundation (NVDA, TSM, AVGO, INTC, WOLF)2026-05-03, prior dayrefinement-log line 8

A standard junior-analyst primary memo runs roughly one to two days per ticker per lens — published, sourced, defensible. Sixty-three memos at one analyst-day each is about thirteen analyst-weeks of capacity at the lens level alone. Add nine PM-level theses, five cohort-level documents, three publication-ready decision memos, and a fully built visual deck — together they sit at the editor and chief-of-research tier and would conservatively add four to six weeks of senior time at any reasonable cadence.

The number this run produced in approximately forty-eight hours of wall-clock therefore represents on the order of three to four months of analyst-desk capacity, gathered into the work-product of one PM holding the seam.

The interpretation matters. The point isn't speed. The point is that the binding constraint shifted. Coverage breadth is no longer rate-limited by analyst headcount — it is rate-limited by the PM's ability to atomize, brief, and refine. The leverage is in the loop, not in the tokens.

Mapping to a real desk

Sober — what a fund running fifty to two hundred names with a four-to-six-person research team should take from this.

Traditional HF roleAIR-orchestrated equivalent
PMSets the cohort. Holds the frame. Sizes the book.AIR — atomizes the ambition, briefs each agent, runs the refinement pass after every wave.
Sector head / strategistWrites the load-bearing thesis frame.domain-synthesist — produces and revises the synthesis; canonical reference for every analyst.
Sector analystCovers N tickers each.7-analyst fan-out per ticker — competitor, customer, financial, macro, market, regulatory, supply-chain. Parallelizable, swappable, replaceable mid-run.
Editor / chief of researchTurns analyst inputs into thesis-grade output.pm-synthesizer — writes the ticker theses, portfolio summary, and decision memos.
Publishing / deck productionAssembles polished research artifacts.investment-visual — builds the entire research deck from the PM-level outputs.
Risk / portfolio constructionCohort-level sizing discipline.AIR cohort-coherence pass (C-COHERENCE) + portfolio-summary discipline.
Audit / oversightDefensibility of the work.refinement-log — append-only, every dispatch and re-dispatch documented.

A four-to-six-person team running fifty to two hundred names spends most of its analyst capacity on coverage maintenance — routine memos, earnings updates, model rolls. The cohort run above suggests the binding constraint can move. Coverage breadth handled by the fan-out, the senior desk concentrated on frame-setting and refinement. The PM's job is to brief well, read returning work against the rubric, and re-plan. The analysts' job becomes specialist depth on demand, dispatched per cohort rather than maintained per ticker. The desk gets to spend its scarce senior attention on the questions that actually move conviction.

What this is not

Where the work stops, and where a real desk takes over.

  1. No price discovery. The cohort is built on synthesis, filings, transcripts, and vault notes. It does not read the tape. Sizing rules — "initiate ETN at one-third now, full size below $360" — are framework discipline, not real-time signals.
  2. No primary management contact. No 1:1 with a CFO, no broker channel checks beyond what has been published, no off-the-record sell-side colour.
  3. No expert-network calls. No GLG, no Tegus, no industry consultants paid for two-hour calls.
  4. No real-time market signals. No bookings panels, no hyperscaler capex tracker, no satellite parking-lot data, no foundry utilization scrapes.
  5. No execution. This is research output. Orders, fills, hedging overlays, and risk-system integration sit elsewhere.
  6. Source-corpus dependence. Output quality is bounded by the vault — four notes, ~41,000 words — plus public filings. ETN's deep-dive explicitly flagged thinness and leaned on filings; the system worked, but the gap was named, not hidden.

A senior desk closes these gaps with a phone, a corporate-access calendar, and a Bloomberg. This work makes those tools more leveraged — it does not replace them.

Queued

What's drafting, what's noted, what the user has to decide before it ships.

Next outputs

  • L4 memory deep-dive (SK Hynix, MU)Queued
  • L1 lithography deep-dive (ASML)Queued
  • Hyperscaler capex trackerDrafting
  • TSM–INTC pair formalizationNoted
  • ETN+VRT cap rule — binding vs guidelineUser decision

The cohort is not the deliverable. The loop is.