- 9 names. 7 longs. 2 shorts. ~15.25% NAV net long.
- Chip-to-grid value chain — dollar-weighted center of mass at G1–G4 ($700K–$2.8M per MW). ETN and VRT each capture 20–60× more per MW than the power-semi BOM layer at L8b/L8c.
- Taiwan-tail closed via TXN/ETN/VRT. AI-capex single-factor is now the largest residual risk; ETN+VRT capped ≤1.5–2.0× TXN.
| Tk | Side · Conv. | % NAV | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | L · 5 | 4.5 | Core |
| NVDA | L · 4 | 4.0 | Core |
| AVGO | L · 4 | 2.5 | Core |
| TXN | L · 3 | 2.5 | Core+hedge |
| ETN | L · 3 | 1.75 | Completion |
| VRT | L · 3 | 1.25 | Completion |
| NVTS | L · 2 | 0.65 | Probe |
| WOLF | S · 4 | −1.25 | Short |
| INTC | S · 3 | −0.65 | Short |
| Net long | +15.25 | 7L · 2S | |
The rack is the new grid.
A 9-name book held as one continuous voltage system — from the substation, through the building, into the rack, onto the board, and into the die. Every layer is being redesigned simultaneously.
The view, in one paragraph.
The cohort expanded from 5 pure-semi names to 9 chip-to-grid names because the dollar-weighted center of mass of the AI-DC build sits at G1–G4 (electrical infrastructure), not at L8b/L8c (power semis): ETN and VRT each capture $700K–$2.8M per MW of addressable content versus roughly 20–60× less for the power-semi BOM layer. Convictions anchor at the silicon tier (TSM at 5/5, NVDA and AVGO at 4/5) and progressively scale down toward the power-infrastructure completion tier (ETN, VRT at 3/5) and the probe tier (NVTS at 2/5). Two shorts (WOLF at 4/5, INTC at 3/5) hedge SiC substrate share collapse and foundry-leadership binary — neither is a Taiwan-tail hedge. The single most important post-expansion finding: Taiwan-tail concentration is materially reduced (TXN/ETN/VRT all carry low-to-zero Taiwan production exposure), but AI-capex single-factor concentration is materially amplified — which is why the ETN+VRT ≤ 1.5–2.0× TXN cap rule is binding and non-negotiable.
The cohort, as one stack.
Read top-to-bottom: from the power plant to the transistor. Each layer carries the cohort name(s) that own it, the dollars per MW captured at that layer, and the conviction tier. The asymmetry between G1–G4 and L8b/L8c is the structural argument for the scope expansion — the electrical layers capture an order of magnitude more dollar-volume per MW than the silicon they feed.
Top 5 catalysts on the calendar.
| # | Date | Event | Names | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 2026-04-02 | ITC FD · Infineon v. Innoscience (337-TA-1407). Single most important GaN-IP regime event in 2026. Base case ~70%: Innoscience prevails (cost-floor amplification). Surprise Infineon win shifts cohort GaN moat read materially positive. | NVTS · TXN · IFX | Binary |
| 02 | 2026-09-13 | MOFCOM antidumping FD on TXN. Bernstein sizes ~11.4% revenue exposed; we estimate 3–6% at meaningful adverse risk. Largest near-term asymmetric downside in any cohort long. Catalyst-aware sizing: TXN is a Q1–Q3 long defended through Q4 binary. | TXN | Bearish-tail |
| 03 | Q2 2026 | Eaton Q2 earnings. First full Boyd quarter consolidated; H1 ramp headwind resolution; GOES disclosure; Mobility spin Form 10 timeline. Conviction-shaper. | ETN | Binary |
| 04 | Q2 2026 (~Jul) | Vertiv Q2 EMEA print. Second geographic data point after Q1 −20% YoY. Two more negative quarters confirm structural Schneider share loss in second-largest market. | VRT | Binary |
| 05 | 2026-06 | EU F-Gas implementing act. Refrigerant transition timelines, R1234ze production requirements. Bearish for VRT cooling-ramp timeline (HFO chokepoint analog of GOES). | VRT | Bearish |
Read the deck.
The names.
"Power is no longer a supply problem. It has become a question of how to redesign the entire voltage stack from the power plant to the die."— synthesis.md · §3.1