10-K supply-chain-analyst 2026-05-04 investor.ti.com
- Manufacturing footprint: RFAB1+RFAB2 (Richardson TX), LFAB1+LFAB2 (Lehi UT), SM1+SM2 (Sherman TX) all 300mm
- 95% internal-mfg target by 2030 with >80% on 300mm
- 'Foundries and subcontractors used selectively to supplement internal capacity'
- US facilities ~17M sqft; ex-US ~12M sqft (~2M leased) at YE2024
10-K competitor-analyst 2026-05-04 investor.ti.com
- >80% direct-customer revenue 2025 (vs ~33% in 2019)
- No single customer >10% of revenue
- >40% of revenue from outside top 100 customers
- Analog FY25 revenue $14B; Embedded FY25 revenue $2.7B
transcript competitor-analyst 2026-05-04 fool.com
- Q3 2025 industrial +25% YoY; automotive +HSD% YoY
- Customer inventories at low levels; depletion behind us
- China commentary in Q2 2025 (referenced): China +19% sequentially, +32% YoY
investor-materials market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 investor.ti.com
- 9 FCF/share at trough prior framework; actual trough 1.47 (6x miss)
investor-materials market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 investor.ti.com
- TI SAM >60B; 8+ FCF/share 2026 guide; capex 2-3B 2026
transcript supply-chain-analyst 2026-05-04 investor.ti.com
- Q3 2025 capex / depreciation commentary
- End-market mix data underlying inventory-days estimate
transcript competitor-analyst 2026-05-04 fool.com
- Q1 2026 revenue $4.83B +19% YoY; analog revenue $3.92B +22% YoY; embedded +12%
- Data center +90% YoY; industrial +30% YoY
- Gross margin 58.0%; operating margin 37%
- Q2 2026 guidance $5.0B-$5.4B revenue, EPS $1.77-$2.05
industry-report market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 coherentmarketinsights.com
- 101.5B 2024 TAM; 6.1% CAGR through 2033
industry-report competitor-analyst 2026-05-04 edn.com
- Top 10 analog suppliers control 68% of market — TI #1 at ~19%
- ADI #2; Infineon, STM, NXP, ON, Renesas, Microchip, MPWR rounding the top 10
industry-report market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 fortunebusinessinsights.com
- 87.5B 2024 TAM; 7.4% CAGR through 2034
industry-report market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 mordorintelligence.com
- 130B 2031 projection; 6-7% CAGR
industry-report market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 precedenceresearch.com
industry-report market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 gminsights.com
- Conservative 3.3% CAGR 2025-2030
industry-report supply-chain-analyst 2026-05-04 atreg.com
- TI acquired Lehi fab from Micron for $900M in Q4 2021
- Production at LFAB1 began Q4 2022
industry-report market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 edn.com
- TXN 19% ADI 12% IFX 10-11% STM 9% NXP 8%; HHI estimation basis
industry-report market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 straitsresearch.com
- 23.4B 2024; 39.9B 2033; 6.1% CAGR
industry-report market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 atlaspeakresearch.com
- Power semi stack 56.9-57B 2025; AI-DC content per rack
industry-report market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 wsts.org
- 2025 total semiconductor market actuals
industry-report market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 edge-ai-vision.com
- Yole MCU 34B by 2030; 6% CAGR; auto largest at 13B
industry-report competitor-analyst 2026-05-04 markets.financialcontent.com
- MPWR 26.4% revenue growth 2025 to $2.8B
- MPWR sampling 800VDC solutions for Blackwell / Vera Rubin
- Positioned for ~70% of NVIDIA Vera Rubin VRM share
- MPWR enterprise data 2026 growth floor raised to >50%
industry-report market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 finance.yahoo.com
- PMIC 29.25B 2025; 10.1% CAGR; intelligent PMICs 1.50-3.00 vs 0.10 commodity
industry-report competitor-analyst 2026-05-04 futurumgroup.com
- TI Q1 2026 data center and industrial demand commentary
- Outlook framing for FY26 by analyst coverage
industry-report competitor-analyst 2026-05-04 artificall.com
- TI 19% analog share; ADI 12%
- TI vertical integration vs ADI capex-light TSMC outsource model
- Q4 2024 GM: TI 58.14%, STM 37.7%, IFX 39.2%, ADI 58.0%
industry-report competitor-analyst 2026-05-04 markets.financialcontent.com
- TXN narrative framing entering 2026: capex-cycle to harvest-mode transition
- Analog $14B FY25 revenue; embedded $2.7B
industry-report competitor-analyst 2026-05-04 yolegroup.com
- Wireless 'front end' of connected systems: protocols, certification, software stacks
- Embedded MCU + wireless platform consolidation context
industry-report supply-chain-analyst 2026-05-04 trendforce.com
- Independent CHIPS Act terms corroboration
- Sherman SM1+SM2 + Lehi LFAB2 site allocation
industry-report competitor-analyst 2026-05-04 csimarket.com
- Analog segment competitive share data Q1 2025
industry-report market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 wsts.org
- Analog +7.5% YoY for 2025; total semi +11.2%
industry-report market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 yolegroup.com
- AI reshaping compute and analog/power market segments
industry-report competitor-analyst 2026-05-04 yolegroup.com
- GaN device 2024 share (Yole/BoA): Innoscience ~30%, NVTS ~17%, POWI ~17%, EPC ~12-15%, Infineon ~10%
- TI GaN device share estimated ~5-7% (#5-#6)
news market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 electropages.com
- Chinese beneficiaries: Silergy SGMicro Southchip Joulwatt Novosense
news competitor-analyst 2026-05-04 globaltimes.cn
- Investigation context as retaliation for US Entity List expansion
- Jiangsu Semiconductor Industry Association as filing party
news competitor-analyst 2026-05-04 yicaiglobal.com
- $350M Chinese domestic-market capture potential from MOFCOM probe outcomes
- Investigation 1-year duration framing
news market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 finance.yahoo.com
- Bernstein: TXN 11.4% revenue exposure China antidumping probe; ADI 7.8%; ON 10.2%
news competitor-analyst 2026-05-04 electropages.com
- Chinese domestic-share beneficiaries: SG Micro, 3PEAK, Silergy, Southchip, Joulwatt, Novosense
news competitor-analyst 2026-05-04 jw.ijiwei.com
- TI broad price reductions in China analog 2024-2025
- Chinese competitors named: SG Micro, Bright Power, Awinic — power management primary target
news competitor-analyst 2026-05-04 manufacturingdive.com
- Q1 2026 data-center growth and Silicon Labs deal context
- Industrial / automotive / data-center mix at 75% of revenue
news competitor-analyst 2026-05-04 finance.yahoo.com
- Infineon projected 60-70% share of NVIDIA Blackwell power management
- Renesas projected 'meaningful' share gains in NVIDIA digital power for Blackwell/Hopper
- Competitive structure for AI-DC PMIC sockets
news supply-chain-analyst 2026-05-04 developer.nvidia.com
- NVIDIA 14-vendor 800V silicon-partner list including TI alongside NVTS, Infineon, EPC, MPS
- Participation, not exclusivity
news supply-chain-analyst 2026-05-04 semiconductor-today.com
- Independent corroboration of Aizu 200mm GaN qualification
- 4× internal GaN capacity claim
news supply-chain-analyst 2026-05-04 ti.com
- $11B LFAB2 investment
- First production target 2026
- 100% renewable; ~800 additional jobs
news supply-chain-analyst 2026-05-04 ti.com
- Confirmation of seven A/T sites globally
- Melaka second fab opens Nov 2025
news supply-chain-analyst 2026-05-04 ti.com
- $60B+ headline US investment plan
- Sherman + Lehi + Richardson sites anchor the reshoring footprint
news competitor-analyst 2026-05-04 finance.yahoo.com
- Data center segment +90% YoY in Q1 2026
- AI data center demand a primary growth driver
news market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 finance.yahoo.com
- Q1 2026 4.83B +19% YoY; analog +22%; data center +90%; industrial +30%
news competitor-analyst 2026-05-04 digitimes.com
- TI data-center revenue trajectory 2025; >$1B FY25 forecast
news supply-chain-analyst 2026-05-04 ti.com
- $1.6B CHIPS direct grant for SM1, SM2, LFAB2
- Estimated $6-8B Investment Tax Credit (Section 48D) on qualified manufacturing investments
news competitor-analyst 2026-05-04 ti.com
- $1.6B CHIPS Act direct funding award
- Three 300mm fabs: Sherman SM1+SM2 (Texas), Lehi LFAB2 (Utah)
- Investments through 2029 underwritten
news competitor-analyst 2026-05-04 ti.com
- Sherman SM1 in production December 2025 — 'tens of millions of chips per day' at full ramp
- 65nm-130nm analog/embedded process technologies
news competitor-analyst 2026-05-04 ti.com
- 200mm GaN production at Aizu Japan + Dallas Texas — 4x capacity expansion
- 300mm GaN pilot complete; processes transferable to 300mm
- Target >95% internal GaN manufacturing by 2030
news competitor-analyst 2026-05-04 e-z-key.com
- TI raised prices on 3,300+ parts in 2024 — selected legacy products
news competitor-analyst 2026-05-04 seekingalpha.com
- FY25 data-center revenue $1.5B +64% YoY = 9% of total revenue
- Industrial / automotive / data center = 75% of FY25 revenue
- Haviv Ilan: data center could reach 20% of total sales 'soon'
news competitor-analyst 2026-05-04 manufacturingdive.com
- Industrial / automotive / data center = 75% of FY25 revenue
- Q3 2025 semiconductor recovery framing
news competitor-analyst 2026-05-04 finance.yahoo.com
- 2026 capex guide $2-3B vs $4.6B in 2025 — six-year elevated cycle ending
- FCF/share doubled to $3.20 in 2025; targeting $8+/share for 2026
- Path to >95% internally sourced wafers (>80% on 300mm) by 2030
- Silicon Labs close expected H1 2027
news competitor-analyst 2026-05-04 ti.com
- $7.5B EV all-cash; $231/share; ~30% premium
- Closing H1 2027
- $450M cost-synergy target within three years post-close
- Strategic logic: wireless connectivity bolt-on to TI MCU+analog stack
news competitor-analyst 2026-05-04 manufacturingdive.com
- Silicon Labs is a TSMC outsource customer — TI absorbs into vertical fab footprint
- Embedded processing competitive context
news competitor-analyst 2026-05-04 everythingpe.com
- Complete 800V power architecture details at NVIDIA GTC 2026
news competitor-analyst 2026-05-04 ti.com
- TI 800V architecture: 800V hot-swap, 800V-to-6V isolated bus converter at 97.6% peak efficiency / >2000W/in³, 6V-to-<1V multiphase buck
- Complete BOM offer at NVIDIA GTC 2026: 30kW 800V AC/DC PSU, 800V capacitor bank with EDLC supercaps at 40W/in³
- Two-stage architecture (vs Navitas single-stage), positioned as TI's vertical-integration flagship product
news supply-chain-analyst 2026-05-04 tomshardware.com
- SM1 first-production date Dec 17 2025
- 3.5-year build cycle from May 2022 ground-break
news regulatory-analyst 2026-05-04 trendforce.com
- ITC §337-TA-1407 ALJ initial determination December 2025 — two patents not infringed
- Final determination scheduled April 2, 2026
- Cross-cohort GaN IP enforceability read-through; relatively favorable to TI vertical-integration moat
news market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 gurufocus.com
- Q2 2026 guidance above seasonal; EPS 1.77-2.05
industry-standard regulatory-analyst 2026-05-04 aecouncil.com
- AEC-Q100 IC qualification baseline; AEC-Q101 discrete-device qualification
- TI's broadest AEC-Q-qualified analog/embedded portfolio in industry — design-in moat
regulatory-filing regulatory-analyst 2026-05-04 federalregister.gov
- Country-tier framework for advanced AI accelerators
- TI products outside scope; cohort regulatory differential vs NVDA/AVGO
article market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 simplywall.st
- 300mm ~40% lower per-die cost vs 200mm; 2.5x chips per wafer
AVGO/customer.md — comparative concentration / contract structure frame
internal-cohort-comparator customer-analyst 2026-05-04
- Hyperscaler concentration comparative frame: AVGO has named >10% customers (Apple ~20%, Google ~10-12%); TXN has none — anti-AVGO concentration profile
- Contract structure comparative frame: AVGO has formal RPO + multi-year ASIC tape-outs + ELA-locked software; TXN has socket-level switching cost as moat substitute, no formal RPO
- Demand quality comparative frame: AVGO has clean pull-through with some Tomahawk pre-buy; TXN has majority direct pull-through with bounded ~20% distribution channel-fill exposure
third-party-analyst market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 x.com
- Power semi content per rack scaling 10x to $140k for 1MW racks
- GaN ~30% / SiC ~10-15% of BOM; 14 vendors named in NVIDIA 800V program (TI included)
third-party-analyst market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 bestanchorstocks.com
- Independent analysis of TI capital plan; FCF/share trajectory; capex cycle ~70% complete
regulatory-filing regulatory-analyst 2026-05-04 federalregister.gov
- Original advanced-computing TPP / performance-density thresholds
- TI's analog and embedded products fall outside scope (foundational baseline)
regulatory-filing regulatory-analyst 2026-05-04 federalregister.gov
- HBM density thresholds for FDPR coverage
- TI not affected — no HBM product line
regulatory-filing regulatory-analyst 2026-05-04 federalregister.gov
- Tightened TPP, removed performance-density safe harbor
- FDPR extension; H20 origination
- Reaffirms TI products outside advanced-computing scope
regulatory-filing competitor-analyst 2026-05-04 trade.gov
- US government acknowledgment of MOFCOM investigation
- Investigation timeline and procedural framing
law regulatory-analyst 2026-05-04 congress.gov
- Statutory basis for §9902 direct grant program and §48D Advanced Manufacturing ITC
- 10-year PRC advanced-node guardrail codification
Cohort companies.json TXN entry (v2, 2026-05-04)
internal-research customer-analyst 2026-05-04
- TXN cohortRationale: vertical-integration anchor in three-way GaN race; spans chip→board through analog/embedded power management content
- TXN catalysts: 95%+ internal manufacturing target by 2030; 200mm production / 300mm pilot complete; Morroni EV-to-rack supply-chain crossover; embedded-analog destock-to-restock cycle absorbing under-utilized capacity
- TXN risks: capex-heavy vertical integration carries cyclical risk; vertical-integration bet may underperform Infineon scale or Navitas density
Cohort companion — AVGO market memo (TAM triangulation methodology)
internal-cross-reference market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04
- Cohort TAM frame methodology — triangulate independent vs company-disclosed sizing
Cohort companion — NVTS market memo (bifurcated GaN frame)
internal-cross-reference market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04
- Discrete vs IC tier bifurcation in GaN; Yole DC GaN $380M 2030 anchor; cycle calendar 2027-2030
Cohort corpus.md — Note 1 'The AI Power Crisis — Part 2' (TXN/Morroni references)
internal-research customer-analyst 2026-05-04
- Direct quote (line 100): 'As TI's Jeffrey Morroni put it, the technology and semiconductor infrastructure that safely supports an 800V EV looks very similar to what an 800V rack infrastructure needs.'
- Direct quote (line 194): 'Infineon fights with scale, TI with vertical integration, and Navitas with density.'
- Direct quote (line 196): 'TI is already in production on 200mm, has completed its 300mm pilot work, and is targeting 95%+ internal manufacturing by 2030.'
- Quote (line 198): 'TI pushes on cost structure and manufacturing control.'
Cohort refinement-log.md — C-NVTS-1 cross-ticker brief for TXN
internal-process customer-analyst 2026-05-04
- Cross-ticker learning #1 for TXN: 'Address TI's GaN vertical strategy head-on. The cohort frame is TI vertical vs Infineon scale vs Navitas density — TI must be evaluated on whether the vertical-integration thesis converts (200mm production → 300mm pilot done → 95% internal by 2030). The March 2026 800V-to-6V product (97.6% efficiency, >2000W/in³) is an anchor.'
- Cross-ticker learning #2 for TXN: 'Address Innoscience' — Bank of America / Yole 2024 share data places TI #5-6 on pure-GaN device share
- Cross-ticker learning #3 for TXN: 'Embedded-analog cycle (synthesis theme #11) is TXN's near-term catalyst, not the 800V GaN narrative. Don't conflate.'
- Finding 3 cohort-wide: 'No major box-builder (VRT, ETN, Schneider, Delta) has a publicly named Navitas-anchored 800VDC reference design as of May 2026' — applied to TI: not named at box-builder lead-partner level either, despite NVIDIA-anchor closure via GTC March 2026
Cohort sibling — AVGO/macro.md (macro lens)
internal-cross-reference macro-analyst 2026-05-04
- Equity-duration baseline for cohort comparison (AVGO higher duration than TXN, both materially lower than NVTS)
- Cohort-typical fabless + TSMC FX profile (USD revenue / TWD cost) — contrast with TXN US-fab vertical model
- ASIC pricing-power baseline transferable to TXN's analog ASP-stickiness analysis
Cohort sibling — NVDA/macro.md (macro lens)
internal-cross-reference macro-analyst 2026-05-04
- Hyperscaler operating-cash-flow funding model — basis for TXN AI-DC rate-insulation argument
- AI-capex super-cycle modal expectation (~$600B / ~50 GW 2026 hyperscaler capex)
- Taiwan-tail revenue-magnitude framing for cohort-relative comparison
Cohort sibling — NVTS financial.md (pair-trade counterweight)
cohort-sibling financial-analyst 2026-05-04
- NVTS at 82.7x EV/Sales vs TXN at 14.4x — opposite valuation poles in same cohort
- NVTS bear case -75%, bull case +150% — pair break-point at TXN ~$210
- TXN as cohort anchor with bounded downside vs NVTS architectural optionality
Cohort sibling — NVTS/macro.md (carry-forward C-NVTS-1 brief)
internal-cross-reference macro-analyst 2026-05-04
- C-NVTS-1 finding: NVTS amplifies (does not hedge) cohort Taiwan-tail and AI-capex concentration
- TXN identified as candidate primary cohort macro hedge — direct carry-forward instruction
- Cohort Taiwan-tail probability framing inherited (2–4%/yr kinetic, 5–8%/yr blockade)
- Rate-sensitivity baseline: NVTS duration-heavy small-cap vs TXN moderate mature dividend-payer comparison
Cohort sibling — WOLF/macro.md (macro lens)
internal-cross-reference macro-analyst 2026-05-04
- Auto-loan rate channel for EV end-market modeling — mechanism applied to TXN auto segment
- CHIPS / IRA cost-side tailwind framework — extended to TXN's $1.6B + 25% ITC analysis
- US-domestic fab footprint as Taiwan-tail hedge — extended to TXN US-fab analysis
- Chinese substrate competition dynamic transferable to commodity-analog substitution analysis for TXN China revenue base
Cohort Synthesis (semiconductor-industry/synthesis.md) — macro lens
internal-synthesis macro-analyst 2026-05-04
- Section 0 cohort scope decision and TXN deep-dive promotion under chip-to-grid framing
- Section 3 theme #1 (voltage-stack redesign at every layer simultaneously)
- Section 3 theme #3 (GaN/SiC competitive structure: 'Infineon scale, TI vertical, Navitas density')
- Section 3 theme #4 (supply chain chose 800V — Morroni 'EV-to-rack supply chain crossover' anchor)
- Section 3 theme #11 (embedded-analog cycle: Q3 2023 trough → restock 2025–2026, TXN-specific framing)
- Section 5 tailwinds/headwinds — vertical-integration capex cycle (TI 95% by 2030), EV supply chain crossover into AI infrastructure
- Section 6 contested claim #15 (Schneider 2028–2030 timing as calendar-mismatch counterweight)
- Open Question #1 (Taiwan-tail concentration) and Open Question #2 (GaN three-way race timing)
Cohort synthesis — chip-to-grid value chain, GaN three-way race, supply-chain-chose-800V, embedded-analog cycle, Taiwan-tail Open Question
internal-cross-reference supply-chain-analyst 2026-05-04
- TXN at L8b/L8c spans chip→board
- Section 3.3 GaN three-way race: TI vertical / NVTS density / Infineon scale
- Section 7 Open Question §1: Taiwan-tail concentration as cohort's biggest unhedged risk
Cohort synthesis.md (semiconductor-industry, 2026-05-04 refresh) — TXN-relevant sections
internal-research customer-analyst 2026-05-04
- Section 2 value-chain map: TXN positioned at L8b (high-density GaN conversion) + L8c (board-level VRM/BCM/eFuse analog power management) — only deep-dive name spanning both layers
- Section 2 L8c row explicitly names MPWR at 'last-mm VRM' — establishes MPWR as named share-gainer at AI-server VRM
- Section 3.3 GaN three-way race: 'Infineon scale, TI vertical, Navitas density'
- Section 3.4: Morroni quote ('the technology and semiconductor infrastructure that safely supports an 800V EV looks very similar to what an 800V rack infrastructure needs') — load-bearing in-corpus anchor
- Section 3.11 embedded-analog cycle TXN-specific theme — destocking → restock cycle as NTM swing factor
government supply-chain-analyst 2026-05-04 commerce.gov
- Government-side disclosure of TI CHIPS Act terms
- Mature-node and current-generation chip capacity expansion framing
regulatory-filing regulatory-analyst 2026-05-04 commerce.gov
- $1.61B CHIPS Act §9902 direct funding award; final binding agreement signed December 20, 2024
- Sherman SM1/SM2 (Texas) + Lehi LFAB2 (Utah) project scope
- Capacity covenants, buyback restriction (5-year), excess-profits clawback up to 75%, 10-year PRC advanced-node guardrail
industry-research market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 edge-ai-vision.com
- MCU TAM $34B by 2030 at 6% CAGR; Auto MCU $13B by 2030
third-party-analyst market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 electropages.com
- Mechanical share-transfer mechanism described; consequences for Western analog IDMs
regulatory-filing regulatory-analyst 2026-05-04 finance.ec.europa.eu
- Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive applicability to TI EU subsidiaries
- Wave-1 thresholds — Freising, Munich, Reading, Nice operations
regulatory-filing regulatory-analyst 2026-05-04 eur-lex.europa.eu
- EU dual-use export controls
- TI products outside scope — minimal incremental burden
third-party-analyst market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 blog.findchips.com
- China local players concentrated in mid-to-low-end; SG Micro $513M LTM (Sep 2025)
third-party-analyst market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 futurumgroup.com
- ADI Q1 2026 industrial +38% YoY; comms +63% YoY; cycle confirmation independent of TI
third-party-analyst market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 futurumgroup.com
- Q4'25 segment performance — analog +14%, embedded +8%, DC +64%; FY25 industrial +12%
industry-research market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 news.metal.com
- TI peak analog share data point ~19% in 2021 — reference for share trajectory 2021-2025
industry-standard regulatory-analyst 2026-05-04 iec.ch
- Industrial functional-safety certification framework
- TI MCU and isolated-driver family compliance
industry-standard regulatory-analyst 2026-05-04 iec.ch
- Industrial cybersecurity certification levels
- TI Sitara industrial Linux and connectivity portfolio compliance
article market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 techinvestments.io
- ADI fab-light vs TXN IDM comparison; industrial analog moat framing
industry-analyst customer-analyst 2026-05-04 research.bernsteinresearch.com
- AI-server analog content per server estimated ~$50-150 (8-GPU baseline) + $200-400 per AI rack at platform level (industry analyst aggregation; not TI-disclosed at SKU level)
- Auto Tier-1 named set within Automotive segment (~70-80% of segment revenue): Bosch, Continental, Denso, ZF, Aptiv, Magna, Forvia, Valeo, Mando, Hyundai Mobis, plus auto OEM direct relationships
- Estimated top 5 customer concentration ~15-18% of revenue; top 10 ~25-30% (consistent with TI's >40%-outside-top-100 disclosure)
- SKU portfolio ~80,000 catalog parts; customer count ~100,000 globally (TI long-running disclosure)
INTC regulatory analysis — §48D ITC scale and CHIPS covenants comparator
internal-cohort-comparator regulatory-analyst 2026-05-04
- §48D ITC scaling methodology
- CHIPS buyback / dividend / clawback covenant interpretation
industry-research market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 einvestingforbeginners.com
- Top-5 analog share TTM: TI/IFX 19.5%, ST 19.1%, NXP 15.4%; HHI computation source
company-disclosure market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 investing.com
- Q4 2025 segment commentary; Q1 2026 guidance $4.3-4.7B; ASP discipline preserved through trough
government supply-chain-analyst 2026-05-04 irs.gov
- ITC mechanics: 25% (now 35%) of qualified property
- Placed-in-service after Dec 31 2022 to qualify
industry-standard regulatory-analyst 2026-05-04 iso.org
- Functional safety certification framework (ASIL grades)
- TI Jacinto TDA4, AWR/IWR radar, Hercules safety MCU portfolio compliance
Macro regime baseline (general-knowledge synthesis, 2026-05-04)
macro-baseline macro-analyst 2026-05-04
- US 10y ~4.0–4.5% / Fed funds 3.75–4.25% / 5y real ~1.5–2.0%
- DXY mid-100s; EUR/USD trading 1.05–1.12 range
- Auto-loan rate environment 2023–2026 suppressing US/EU EV unit demand by ~5–10% per 100bp
- Embedded-analog cycle Q3 2023 trough per peer disclosures (ADI, MCHP, NXP, ON) — restock running unevenly through 2024–2026
- Sticky services inflation ~3% core; goods deflating; net moderate-inflation regime
- Hyperscaler 2026 AI capex framing per cohort synthesis Section 5
regulatory-filing competitor-analyst 2026-05-04 english.mofcom.gov.cn
- MOFCOM antidumping investigation initiated September 13, 2025
- TI and ADI named as primary import respondents
- Cumulative 51.77% Chinese market price decline 2022-2024 cited as injury
- Final determination expected by September 13, 2026
industry-research market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 mordorintelligence.com
- Analog IC TAM $83.8B in 2025; mid-single-digit CAGR 2025-2030
regulatory-program regulatory-analyst 2026-05-04 nist.gov
- CHIPS Act §9902 direct grant program structure
- Milestone audit framework for disbursement tranches
- Standard guardrails (buyback / dividend / PRC expansion / clawback)
NVDA regulatory analysis — BIS export-control scope comparator
internal-cohort-comparator regulatory-analyst 2026-05-04
- BIS advanced-computing rule scope demonstration
- Cohort regulatory differential — TI relative insulation in analog/embedded category
press-release customer-analyst 2026-05-04 developer.nvidia.com
- Infineon named lead partner in NVIDIA 800V HVDC ecosystem (May 2025); Navitas named ecosystem partner; TI not named at that time
- Establishes the named-partner gap that the March 16 2026 NVIDIA GTC complete-architecture announcement subsequently closed for TI at the architecture-anchor level
- Cross-checked through May 2026: no public Vertiv-TI / Eaton-TI / Schneider-TI / Delta-TI 800V GaN reference-design joint announcement found at the box-builder level
NVTS regulatory analysis — subsidy asymmetry comparator
internal-cohort-comparator regulatory-analyst 2026-05-04
- NVTS receives zero CHIPS direct grant or DOE LPO; TI receives $1.61B + ~$4.5B §48D
- Subsidy-disadvantage asymmetry directly cited per refinement-log C-NVTS-1
NVTS supply-chain analysis — TSMC GaN exit by July 2027, foundry transition framing
internal-cross-reference supply-chain-analyst 2026-05-04
- TSMC ends GaN foundry by end-July 2027
- NVTS triple-foundry transition (PSMC + GF Burlington + X-Fab) — the 'two halves of the same story' brief
- TXN vertical integration as the structural hedge to NVTS foundry-loss
NVTS/customer.md — Reference-Design Partners cross-reference
internal-cohort-comparator customer-analyst 2026-05-04
- Cross-reference establishing the 800V GaN named-partner gap as of late April 2026: NVTS customer analyst found no public Vertiv / Eaton / Schneider / Delta reference design naming Navitas at the GaN partner level
- Same gap applied to TXN at the box-builder level pre-March 2026; TI's March 16 2026 NVIDIA GTC complete-architecture announcement closes the gap at the architecture-anchor level (NVIDIA itself); box-builder-level disclosure remains pending
- C-NVTS-1 cross-ticker brief: 'reference-design partner naming is the critical disclosure for the cohort'
data-aggregator financial-analyst 2026-05-04 stockanalysis.com
- ADI: $194B mcap, 16.9x EV/Sales, 36.3x EV/EBITDA, 33.1x forward P/E, 2.4% FCF yield, 1.1% dividend yield
data-aggregator financial-analyst 2026-05-04 stockanalysis.com
- MCHP: $51B mcap, 12.8x EV/Sales, 57.1x EV/EBITDA, 38.6x forward P/E, 1.6% FCF yield, 1.9% dividend yield, 6.3% operating margin (cyclical bottom)
data-aggregator financial-analyst 2026-05-04 stockanalysis.com
- MPWR: $78B mcap, 25.9x EV/Sales, 89.4x EV/EBITDA, 62.5x forward P/E, 0.5% dividend yield — closest AI-DC narrative comp
data-aggregator financial-analyst 2026-05-04 stockanalysis.com
- NXPI: $74B mcap, 6.5x EV/Sales, 17.2x EV/EBITDA, 18.8x forward P/E, 3.6% FCF yield, 1.4% dividend yield — relative-value standout in comp set
data-aggregator financial-analyst 2026-05-04 stockanalysis.com
- ON: $41B mcap, 6.9x EV/Sales, 23.7x EV/EBITDA, 35.1x forward P/E, 3.5% FCF yield, no dividend
article market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 techinvestments.io
- Infineon 12k-15k per 130kW rack; Onsemi 50k-100k per MW next-gen
Refinement log — C-NVTS-1 carry-forward
internal-process regulatory-analyst 2026-05-04
- Subsidy asymmetry citation requirement (NVTS zero CHIPS, TI $1.61B)
- April 2, 2026 ITC Infineon-v-Innoscience FD as cross-cohort GaN IP catalyst
regulatory-filing regulatory-analyst 2026-05-04 sec.gov
- Reg S-K Subpart 1500 climate disclosure requirements
- Status: stayed pending Eighth Circuit consolidated litigation
- AI-DC cross-exposure mechanism (Scope 2/3 customer disclosure pulling through to energy-efficient power-semi design-in)
press market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 scmp.com
- China local analog (SG Micro etc.) pricing dynamics; substitution narrative validated
litigation-database regulatory-analyst 2026-05-04 securities.stanford.edu
- TXN securities class action docket review (FY2022/FY2023 inventory disclosure cases)
industry-research market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 straitsresearch.com
- Embedded processor TAM $24.8B (2025) → $39.9B (2033) at 6.1% CAGR
third-party-analyst market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 successfuldaily.com
- Q1 2026 inventory days normalized into long-run band; destocking ended Q1; cycle resumed above prior peak
regulatory-filing regulatory-analyst 2026-05-04 comptroller.texas.gov
- Sherman site state/local incentive package — ~$340M PV
- Texas Enterprise Fund + property-tax abatement structure
company-press-release financial-analyst 2026-05-04 ti.com
- $60B+ planned investment across 7 U.S. fabs / 3 mega-sites (Texas + Utah)
- Sherman site alone up to $40B
- Analog and embedded processing chip production focus
company-disclosure market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 investor.ti.com
- Industrial+auto ~70% of revenue (vs ~40% prior cycle); 95%+ internal manufacturing target by 2030
- TI SAM frame >$60B post-2030 (company definition incl. embedded)
company-disclosure market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 ti.com
- Sherman SM1 in production (2025); SM2 shell complete; Lehi LFAB1 ramping at 45-65nm; 28nm qualification underway
investor-presentation financial-analyst 2026-05-04 investor.ti.com
- Free cash flow per share is the primary metric for measuring shareholder value creation
- Dividend grows every year regardless of cycle (22-year streak)
- Buybacks opportunistic and suspended during capex peak
- Target: 95%+ internal wafer sourcing by 2030; 80%+ on 300mm; 90%+ assembly internal
- Fab roadmap: RFAB2 (Richardson), LFAB1 (Lehi), SM1/SM2 (Sherman) ramping by demand
- $20B open buyback authorization at year-end 2025
company-press-release financial-analyst 2026-05-04 ti.com
- Up to $1.6B CHIPS Act direct funding award
- Estimated $6-8B Investment Tax Credit (ITC, ~25%) over fab build life
- Combined ~$7.6-9.6B subsidy offset against $60B+ headline capex commitment
company-disclosure regulatory-analyst 2026-05-04 ti.com
- Scope 1 ~1.6 Mt CO2e; Scope 2 ~3.4 Mt CO2e
- Water reclamation targets; Sherman site environmental commitments (>80% recycle target)
- 95th-percentile peer disclosure
third-party-analysis financial-analyst 2026-05-04 finance.yahoo.com
- 2026 capex slashed from $4.6B (FY25) to $2.0-3.0B guide
- FY2025 actual FCF/share: $3.23
- FY2026 target: $8+ FCF/share
- FY2025 share repurchases $1.5B; cumulative shares outstanding -47% since 2004
- Silicon Labs acquisition closing 1H 2027, financed by cash on hand and debt arranged pre-closing
annual-report financial-analyst 2026-05-04 investor.ti.com
- FY2025 revenue $17.7B (+13% YoY)
- FY2025 free cash flow $2.6-2.9B / 14.7% of revenue (+96% YoY)
- FY2025 capital expenditures $4.6B
- 22 consecutive years of dividend increases through Q4 2025
- Quarterly dividend raised to $1.42/share (+4%) in Q4 2025
- Total cash returned to shareholders $6.5B in 2025
company-disclosure market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 ti.com
- TPS1685 industry-first 48V integrated hot-swap eFuse with power-path protection
- LMG3650R series GaN power stages: 650V, >98% efficiency, >100W/in3
The AI Power Crisis — Part 2 (cohort vault note, ingested 2026-05-03) — macro/Morroni anchor
vault-note macro-analyst 2026-05-04
- Direct corpus quote: 'TI is already in production on 200mm, has completed its 300mm pilot work, and is targeting 95%+ internal manufacturing by 2030'
- Morroni quote: 'the technology and semiconductor infrastructure that safely supports an 800V EV looks very similar to what an 800V rack infrastructure needs'
- Competitive frame: 'Infineon fights with scale, TI with vertical integration, and Navitas with density'
- EV supply chain crossover into AI data center as second demand curve — 800V ecosystem context
press market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 theregister.com
- Power-management chip demand inflection driven by AI servers
company-disclosure market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 ti.com
- Vertiv PowerDirect Rack DC powered by TI GaN technology delivers up to 132kW per rack
investor-presentation supply-chain-analyst 2026-05-04 investor.ti.com
- Capex roadmap; 95% internal mfg target framing
- Effective subsidy stack treatment
- Depreciation guidance ($1.8-2.0B for 2025)
investor-presentation competitor-analyst 2026-05-04 investor.ti.com
- Capital management framework: maximize long-term FCF/share growth
- RFAB2, LFAB1, Sherman fab roadmap
- Manufacturing-leverage thesis underwriting Silicon Labs synergies
company-page supply-chain-analyst 2026-05-04 ti.com
- 300mm GaN status: 'delivering customer samples' — sampling, not production-qualified for HVM
- Important caveat: don't conflate sampling with production qualification
company-page supply-chain-analyst 2026-05-04 ti.com
- LFAB1 acquired from Micron Q4 2021; production Q4 2022
- LFAB2 broke ground Nov 2 2023; first production target 2026
- Starting nodes 65nm/45nm analog/embedded; expandable beyond
earnings supply-chain-analyst 2026-05-04 ti.com
- Q4'25 revenue $4.42B, EPS $1.27
- FY25 capex $4.6B; 2026 guide $2-3B
- FCF $2.9B (+96% YoY) including ~$670M of CHIPS / ITC cash benefits in 2025
company-disclosure market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 ti.com
- Q4 2025 analog $3.6B +14% YoY; embedded $662M +8%; data center $1.5B +64% YoY (~9% of total)
- FY25 capex $4.6B; FY26 guide $2-3B (capex tapering)
company-page supply-chain-analyst 2026-05-04 ti.com
- SM1 in production Dec 17 2025 (3.5-year build)
- SM2 shell complete; cleanroom + tools begin 2026
- SM3-SM4 sequencing through end of decade
- Up to $40B Sherman-site investment ceiling; 1.3M sqft cleanroom; 3,000 TI jobs
- Named customers at SM1 launch: Apple, Ford, Medtronic, NVIDIA, SpaceX
company-page supply-chain-analyst 2026-05-04 ti.com
- Seven captive A/T sites globally: Aguascalientes (MX), Chengdu (CN), Kuala Lumpur (MY), Melaka×2 (MY), Baguio (PH), Pampanga/Clark (PH), Aizu (JP), Miho (JP)
- Wafer fab list: Sherman (SM1-SM4), Lehi (LFAB1-2), Richardson (RFAB1-2), Dallas (legacy 200mm + GaN), Aizu, Miho
- Cheonan, Korea NOT listed as a TI manufacturing site (corrects prompt assumption)
third-party-analysis financial-analyst 2026-05-04 tikr.com
- FY2025 FCF/share $3.23 (up 97% YoY from $1.63 in FY2024)
- Capex $4.6B in 2025 → $2-3B guide for 2026 (end of 6-year elevated investment cycle)
- Depreciation $1.9B in 2025 → $2.2-2.4B in 2026 (~$400M step-up)
- S&P 500 94th percentile for cash returns to shareholders
press market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 tomshardware.com
- AI-driven structural cycle context; giga cycle framing for forward semi outlook
third-party-press market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 tomshardware.com
- $60B 6-year capex program; tens of millions of chips per day capacity at Sherman
regulatory-filing regulatory-analyst 2026-05-04 federalregister.gov
- 25% refundable Advanced Manufacturing ITC on US semiconductor capex placed in service from January 1, 2023
- Final rule issued October 23, 2024
- Recapture mechanics on PRC-guardrail violations
- Estimated TI §48D value ~$4.5B PV on $18B+ Sherman/Lehi qualifying capex
TSM regulatory analysis — Section 232 / CHIPS PMT covenant comparator
internal-cohort-comparator regulatory-analyst 2026-05-04
- Section 232 framing methodology
- CHIPS Arizona PMT covenants comparable to TI Sherman/Lehi
TSM supply-chain analysis — Taiwan-tail framework, tier-2 chokepoint analysis
internal-cross-reference supply-chain-analyst 2026-05-04
- Cohort baseline for Taiwan exposure (~92% TSMC vs <5% TXN)
- Tier-2 chokepoints (ZEISS, Inpria, Aixtron) with TXN's differential exposure (no EUV → no ZEISS/Inpria; Aixtron is the only shared chokepoint)
data-aggregator financial-analyst 2026-05-04 stockanalysis.com
- FY21-FY25 revenue / margin / earnings time series (rev: $18.3B / $20.0B / $17.5B / $15.6B / $17.7B)
- FY21-FY25 OCF / capex / FCF time series (FCF: $6.3B / $5.9B / $1.3B / $1.5B / $2.6B)
- FY22-FY25 balance sheet: cash drained $9.1B → $4.9B; total debt $8.7B → $14.0B; flipped to net debt $9.2B
- FY21-FY25 SBC % revenue: 1.3-2.5% (cohort-clean)
- Current valuation: market cap $256B, EV $264B, P/E TTM 48x, forward P/E 34x, EV/EBITDA 30.5x, EV/Sales 14.4x, FCF yield 1.5%, dividend yield 2.0%
- Beta 0.99, ROE 32.4%, current price $280.89
earnings-transcript financial-analyst 2026-05-04 fool.com
- Q3'25 revenue +14% YoY / +7% sequential
- Q3'25 industrial +25%, auto +upper-single-digits, comms +45%, enterprise +35% all YoY
- Q3'25 Analog +16% YoY, Embedded Processing +9% YoY
- Data center running at $1.2B run-rate in 2025, +50% YoY first three quarters
- Customer inventory depletion 'behind us' — destock-to-restock inflection confirmed in Q3
earnings-transcript financial-analyst 2026-05-04 fool.com
- FY2025 segment revenue: Analog +14% YoY, Embedded Processing +8% YoY
- FY2025 end markets: Industrial $5.8B (+12%), Auto $5.8B (+6%), Personal Electronics $3.7B (+7%), Data Center $1.5B (+64%), Comms ~$500M (+20%)
- FY2025 CHIPS Act cash benefit received: $670M
- FY2025 debt outstanding $14B at 4% weighted-average coupon
- Dividend $1.42/share quarterly, 22nd consecutive annual increase
regulatory-filing regulatory-analyst 2026-05-04 content.govdelivery.com
- Section 232 implementation mechanics and HTSUS application
regulatory-filing regulatory-analyst 2026-05-04 ustr.gov
- Section 301 List 4A baseline rates
- 50% rate increase on HTSUS 8542-class semiconductor subheadings effective January 1, 2025
- Bidirectional tariff exposure framing for TI Chengdu assembly and US-origin shipments to China
regulatory-filing regulatory-analyst 2026-05-04 business.utah.gov
- Lehi LFAB2 Economic Development Tax Increment Financing
- ~$150-200M PV state/local incentives
law regulatory-analyst 2026-05-04 congress.gov
- UFLPA enforcement framework; Xinjiang rebuttable presumption
- Indirect gallium upstream sourcing exposure for GaN supply chain
Vault corpus — Morroni quote and three-way GaN competitive frame
vault-corpus financial-analyst 2026-05-04
- Jeffrey Morroni (TI): 'the technology and semiconductor infrastructure that safely supports an 800V EV looks very similar to what an 800V rack infrastructure needs'
- Competitive frame: 'Infineon fights with scale, TI with vertical integration, and Navitas with density' (AI Power Crisis Part 2)
- TI 200mm in production, 300mm pilot complete, 95%+ internal manufacturing target by 2030
law-firm-analysis regulatory-analyst 2026-05-04 whitecase.com
- Section 232 narrow-scope analysis
- Derivative-product expansion contemplated; relative-cost asymmetry vs EU-origin parts
executive-order regulatory-analyst 2026-05-04 whitehouse.gov
- 25% Section 232 narrow scope on H200/MI325X-class advanced computing semiconductors
- TI's analog and embedded products explicitly out of scope
- Explicit contemplation of derivative-product scope expansion
industry-research market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 wsts.org
- $975.5B 2026 global semis; analog moderate recovery 2026 vs Logic/Memory steepness
industry-research market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 wsts.org
- Analog +7.5% growth in 2025; global semis $772.2B 2025
press market-positioning-analyst 2026-05-04 yicaiglobal.com
- Sept 2025 Chinese MOFCOM anti-dumping probe; $350M+ near-term unlocked Chinese pool (Citi)