Build into it. Don't take it.
A 1.0-1.5% probe today, scaling to 4-5% only when two conditions clear. 5% hard cap, regardless of conviction.
Three steps, two triggers, one cap
What "benign" and "fat pitch" actually mean
Benign Coinbase Aug 2026 outcome
Defined as: same-or-better economic terms with no expansion of "on-platform" definitions. Ideally with directional pressure on Coinbase's residual share (e.g., a step-down to 45% in years 2-3). Combined with Fed staying ≥3% and one quarter of CPN >$30B annualized, asymmetry shifts from ~1.5:1 to ~3:1 even at $160-180 prices.
| If terms… | Action |
|---|---|
| Same / no worse | +1.0-1.5% → 2.5-3% |
| Better (rare) | +2.0% → ~3.5% |
| Worse | do NOT add; check kill #1 |
Rate-driven drawdown to $80-90
Defined as: price drops on a rates/macro shock (not company-specific news), reaching the $80-90 zone. This is the financial-analyst's fat-pitch range where the reverse-DCF lets one bull leg fail and you still get 2-3x. Implied market cap $14-19B, EV/EBITDA 16-22x — much-improved margin of safety.
| If price… | Action |
|---|---|
| $95-110, rate-driven | hold; do not add |
| $80-90, rate-driven | +1.5-2.5% → 4-5% |
| <$80, company-specific | re-evaluate kill criteria |
Why the staircase, not a single buy
The structural longs (4 + 4 + 3 = 11/15 conviction) support that this is the right category and the right issuer for the next decade of dollar diffusion. The financial analyst's ~150x P/FCF on true economic FCF (~$200-250M post-SBC) and the customer/supply-chain analysts' alignment on Coinbase concentration mean the price and the contract economics are unsettled.
A 1-1.5% starter respects the financial analyst's "do not size big at $138" verdict while keeping a real seat at the table for the structural bull case.
The path to a "bigger investment" runs through dated catalysts, not through conviction-by-narrative. Aug 2026 is the highest-stakes single event because it determines the structural margin profile for 3 more years and resolves the largest single risk in the dossier.
Hard cap at 5% regardless of conviction. The single-statute / single-counterparty / single-rate-curve concentration in the underlying business is too high to justify a sleeve weight that would require any of those tail risks to be hedgeable. They aren't.