Three triggers that mean exit, not average down.
Dated, observable, binding. The discipline the thesis is unsigned without.
If any of these fires, exit. Don't average down.
Coinbase Aug 2026 renewal extracts materially worse terms
Defined as any of:
- a. Coinbase's residual share rises from 50% to ≥60%.
- b. "On-platform" definition expands to include Base-native USDC or Coinbase-affiliated entities adding 5+ pp of effective share.
- c. Coinbase formally promotes a competing stablecoin alongside USDC.
- d. Renewal term shortened from 3 years to <2 years — signalling Coinbase keeping option open.
CLARITY Act or Path C amendment relaxes the yield-prohibition
Defined as any federal statute or final rule permitting:
- a. Interest pass-through to stablecoin holders in any form.
- b. "Rewards" carve-out exceeding ~2% APY by issuer or affiliate.
- c. Regulatory equivalence granted to yield-bearing tokenised MMFs (BUIDL, BENJI) for use in real-time payment flows.
USDC float meaningfully de-grows for two consecutive quarters
Defined as: float declines 5%+ in any quarter and follows with another decline OR flat-to-down quarter, in the absence of a market-wide stablecoin contraction (i.e., share is being lost to bank tokens / USAT / yield-bearing alternatives).
Re-sizing trigger (not exit)
Fed funds cuts to <1.5% within 12 months WITHOUT compensating float acceleration
This is more of a re-sizing trigger than an exit trigger — if it happens, downsize and wait for either the rate cycle to turn or the price to crater.
thesis.md · §Kill Criteria · SecondaryWhy this matters: the thesis is structurally hostage to three single-point variables. The sizing is small until the first of them resolves. The kill criteria exist to prevent the common failure mode — the structural bull case is real, so I'll average down on bad news. For Circle, two of the three kill criteria are statutory or contractual; you cannot research your way out of them.